Saturday, 6 June 2020

No substitute for luck

I got my quarterly summary of the performance of my various financial investments recently. As expected, results were not good. So many companies have not been able to trade at all, others have been seriously affected by lockdown and quarantine arrangements.

But, of course, some companies have been able to take advantage of their ‘special situation’.  Supermarkets have had some problems but have remained open, able to take advantage of the fact that people cannot go out to cafes and restaurants and thus were forced to buy and cook their own food. Supermarkets were even able to sell less essential items, giving them a temporary market advantage over their locked-down competitors.

A small number of companies in other sectors had similar strokes of luck - enabling three to take advantage - albeit temporarily - of a temporary market advantage.

Probably the biggest winners were those who had an established online business - but, of course, they also needed to have the ability to raise capacity quickly.

Ancillary service companies - delivery/courier services, for example, have seen a real boost to their business.
  
Did you manage to invest in such companies early in the lockdown - recognising and exploiting the potential?  I did not.

It does, however, remind us that in most situations, however dire, there remain opportunities. Not always to take financial advantage - but to take some advantage of the opportunity to focus - on writing - for example - while there are fewer distractions around.  

Those who succeed are often simply those who recognise opportunities early - and act on that recognition.

But, what the above suggested, is there is no substitute for good luck.  Successful companies recognise their luck and swiftly line up behind it and push it to the winning post!

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